(a) For major and significant transactions, applicants shall submit impact analyses (exhibit 12) describing the impacts of the proposed transaction—both adverse and beneficial—on inter-and intramodal competition with respect to freight surface transportation in the regions affected and on the provision of essential services by applicants and other carriers. An impact analysis should include underlying data, a study of the implications of those data, and a description of the resulting likely effects of the proposed transaction on the transportation alternatives that would be available to the shipping public. Each aspect of the analysis should specifically address significant impacts as they relate to the applicable statutory criteria (49 U.S.C. 11324(b) or (d)), essential services, and competition. Applicants must identify and address relevant markets and issues, and provide additional information as requested by the Board on markets and issues that warrant further study. Applicants (and any other party submitting analyses) must demonstrate both the relevance of the markets and issues analyzed and the validity of their methodology. All underlying assumptions must be clearly stated. Analyses should reflect the consolidated company's marketing plan and existing and potential competitive alternatives (inter- as well as intramodal). They can address: city pairs, interregional movements, movements through a point, or other factors; a particular commodity, group of commodities, or other commodity factor that would be significantly affected by the transaction; or other effects of the transaction (such as on a particular type of service offered).

(b) For major transactions, applicants shall submit “full system” impact analyses (incorporating any operations in Canada or Mexico) from which they must demonstrate the impacts of the transaction—both adverse and beneficial—on competition within regions of the United States and this nation as a whole (including inter- and intramodal competition, product competition, and geographic competition) and the provision of essential services (including freight, passenger, and commuter) by applicants and other network links (including Class II and Class III rail carriers and ports). Applicants' impact analyses must at least provide the following types of information:

(1) The anticipated effects of the transaction on traffic patterns, market concentrations, and/or transportation alternatives available to the shipping public. Consistent with § 1180.6(b)(10), these would incorporate a detailed examination of any competition-enhancing aspects of the transaction and of the specific measures proposed by applicants to preserve existing levels of competition and essential services;

(2) Actual and projected market shares of originated and terminated traffic by railroad for each major point on the combined system. Applicants may define points as individual stations or as larger areas (such as Bureau of Economic Analysis statistical areas or U.S. Department of Agriculture Crop Reporting Districts) as relevant and indicate the extent of switching access and availability of terminal belt railroads. Applicants should list points where the number of serving railroads would drop from two to one and from three to two, respectively, as a result of the proposed transaction (both before and after applying proposed remedies for competitive harm);

(3) Actual and projected market shares of revenues and traffic volumes for major interregional or corridor flows by major commodity group. Origin/destination areas should be defined at relevant levels of aggregation for the commodity group in question. The data should be broken down by mode and (for the railroad portion) by single-line and interline routings (showing gateways used);

(4) For each major commodity group, an analysis of traffic flows indicating patterns of geographic competition or product competition across different railroad systems, showing actual and projected revenues and traffic volumes;

(5) Maps and other graphic displays where helpful in illustrating the analyses in this section;

(6) An explicit delineation of the projected impacts of the transaction on the ability of various network links (including Class II and Class III rail carriers and ports) to participate in the competitive process and to sustain essential services; and

(7) Supporting data for the analyses in this section, such as the basis for projections of changes in traffic patterns, including shipper surveys and econometric or other statistical analyses. If not made part of the application, applicants shall make these data available in a repository for inspection by other parties or otherwise supply these data on request, for example, electronically. Access to confidential information will be subject to protective order. For information drawn from publicly available published sources, detailed citations will suffice.

(8) If necessary, an explanation as to how the lack of reliable and consistent data has limited applicants' ability to satisfy any of the requirements in this paragraph (b).

(c) For significant transactions, specific regulations on impact analyses are not provided so that the parties will have the greatest leeway to develop the best evidence on the impacts of each individual transaction. As a general guideline, applicants shall provide supporting data that may (but need not) include: current and projected traffic flows; data underlying sales forecasts or marketing goals; interchange data; market share analysis; and/or shipper surveys. It is important to note that these types of studies are neither limiting nor all-inclusive. The parties must provide supporting data, but are free to choose the type(s) and format. If not made part of the application, applicants shall make these data available in a repository for inspection by other parties or otherwise supply these data on request, for example, electronically. Access to confidential information will be subject to protective order. For information drawn from publicly available published sources, detailed citations will suffice.