(a) We will base eligibility determinations on final vital statistics data provided by NCHS showing the number of out-of-wedlock live births and the number of total live births among women living in each State and a factor provided by NCHS to adjust for changes in data reporting for those States that have changed their methodology for collecting data on out-of-wedlock births during the bonus period.

(b) We will use the number of total live births and the number of out-of-wedlock births, adjusted for any changes in data collection or reporting, to calculate the decrease in the ratio of out-of-wedlock to total births for each State as follows:

(1) We will calculate the ratio as the number of out-of-wedlock births for the State during the most recent two-year period for which NCHS has final birth data divided by the number of total births for the State during the same period. We will calculate, to three decimal places, the ratio for each State that submits the necessary data on total and out-of-wedlock births described in § 283.4.

(2) We will calculate the ratio for the previous two-year period using the same methodology.

(3) We will calculate the proportionate change in the ratio as the ratio of out-of-wedlock births to total births for the most recent two-year period minus the ratio of out-of-wedlock births to total births from the prior two-year period, all divided by the ratio of out-of-wedlock births to total births for the prior two-year period. A negative number will indicate a decrease in the ratio and a positive number will indicate an increase in the ratio.

(c) We will identify which States have a decrease in their ratios large enough to make them potentially eligible for the bonus, as follows:

(1) For States other than Guam, American Samoa and the Virgin Islands, we will use this calculated change to rank the States and identify which five States have the largest decrease in their ratios. Only States among the top five will be potentially eligible for the bonus. We will identify fewer than five such States as potentially eligible if fewer than five experience decreases in their ratios. We will not include Guam, American Samoa and the Virgin Islands in this ranking.

(2) If we identify more than five States due to a tie in the decrease, we will recalculate the ratio and the decrease in the ratio to as many decimal places as necessary to eliminate the tie. We will identify no more than five States.

(3) For Guam, American Samoa and the Virgin Islands, we will use the calculated change in the ratio to identify which of these States experienced a decrease that is either at least as large as the smallest qualifying decrease identified in paragraph (c)(1) of this section, or a decrease that ranks within the top five decreases when all States and Territories are ranked together. These identified States will be potentially eligible for the bonus also.

(4) We will notify the potentially eligible States, as identified under paragraphs (a) through (c) of this section that they must submit the information on abortions specified under § 283.6 if they want to be considered for the bonus.